Reaction Paper #5

Readings: “Descent into Chaos” Chapters 7-9

            This part of “Descent into Chaos” focuses on Afghanistan immediately after full combat operations ended in 2002. In the aftermath there was a precarious shift of power. The US needed to hand over a government to the country, but none existed. Instead, Rumsfeld and the Department of Defense decided to hand over governing power to the autonomous tribal leaders. The first major problem if this method was that most of the leaders had ties with the Taliban. This warlord authority Rashid considered to be Rumsfeld’s most fatal mistake. Rumsfeld had almost unlimited power in this regard, and he acted independently of the rest of the administration. However, he used the CIA’s $1 Billion Budget to fund the warlords. In retrospect it was clear that he was really indirectly just funding Taliban leaders, and was holding back and even reversing Afghan reconstruction. In June 2002 Karzai was elected President by a Loya Jirga in Germany.[i] He still had no power, however, because at this point the military had only secured Kabul, and had no political control over the rest of the country. To this day, Karzai is still only a glorified Mayor of Kabul.

            In Pakistan, Musharraf continued toeing the line between the Taliban and The US.  The ISI continued to be somewhat lukewarm in its support of the US while conducting double dealings with Al Qaida leaders in Afghanistan and the tribal regions of Pakistan. They were attempting to secure their survival whichever way the chips fell. It should have been clear to them that the US would refuse to stop until it achieved victory or it didn’t have any soldiers left (proof lies in Vietnam) so it was more in their interest to completely support the US in their endeavors even if it only meant that the US would be out of there sooner. But ideology drives a hard bargain. The Taliban and Al Qaida mindsets had so infiltrated the ISI by this point that they were practically the same group. [ii] This was clear especially in the Killing of Daniel Pearl in 2002 and the wave of terror attacks that followed. [iii] Their anti-American party called Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal flourished in Pakistan, though the Political system there is basically the ISI, it is highly doubtful that, had there been fair and free elections un-tampered with by the government, the same outcome would have occurred. Because of the uncooperative actions of Pakistan, the US expanded their bases in the region Central Asia to other countries, especially Uzbekistan.[iv]

            President Bush missed his opportunity for nation building because his leadership skills were lacking. He let a key directive expire that would have enacted an interagency process to rebuild Afghanistan.[v]  Despite the minor success of a few programs, the real hindrances were the CIA and DOD and their failure to cooperate with one another.[vi] If our own US government cannot coordinate together within itself or with other NATO or UN countries to solve a key problem threatening the safety of the US military, and by extension the American people, then I have no idea how they ever expected to have any success building another nation with Afghanistan’s history and political and social climate.[vii]

Viewings: “Kill/Capture” – PBS Frontline

            On May 2^nd, 2011, The US Special Operatives of Team 6, part of the Joint Special Operations Command had one of the highest profile successes of the Kill/Capture program since its inception. They raided a compound in Pakistan and killed Osama Bin Laden. Kill/Capture was a US strategy devised to keep the enemy on the run and to prevent them from gaining any stronghold territory. Under this system more than 12,000 militants per year have been either killed or are in US custody. But sometimes intelligence is wrong, and sometimes they raid the homes of supporters by accident. Not only does that result in the death of innocent people, but it makes locals dislike the US military. Especially Afghan soldiers who are ashamed to raid the homes of tribal elders. What the overall strategy is trying to do is make friends with the local people to isolate the insurgents, but is that what they’re really doing?

The US military believes in killing people, but only the right people. They are getting better and better at identifying and isolating the real enemy: the individual terrorist members of Al Qaida. General McChrystal increased kill/capture missions and Petraeus continued to use them even more frequently. The raids themselves are mostly run by JSOC Special Forces such as the Navy Seals or 101^st Airborne because they exist outside of NATO limits. This leaves conventional forces to secure populace, theoretically. It has worked in many places- there’s no more Taliban in many towns in Afghanistan. Still many feel it is offensive and violates Islamic values, traditions, and code by violating women and breaking and entering. Even the most US- friendly Afghan soldiers oppose night raids because they feel it is offensive in their country. The US army tries to reduce offense by using locals from the Afghan army instead of Americans.

 It even goes so far to make some support the Taliban instead. Many tribal elders and small militias have either returned to Taliban control or are openly sympathetic to the Taliban. An even bigger problem is when the US makes a mistake. One time, a drone missile hit an election convoy instead of the terrorists. The US military maintained that they had killed the right person, but there is no way to oversee if they make a mistake. Just because they think someone is a terrorist, doesn’t mean they’re right – intelligence mistakes cost lives. Furthermore, they don’t have to approve their targets with the government in Kabul, so there are some mistakes that could have been avoided by including the Kabul government in their decisions. More mistakes mean more Afghans will go to the Taliban side. Lots of Taliban are being killed successfully but there are always more Taliban soldiers waiting to take over. It’s impossible to get rid of people that are ready and willing to die anyway, with nearly unlimited human resources. And the more the US makes ordinary citizens the victims, the more support the Taliban will get. Even people who left the Taliban regret doing so, because the Kabul government can’t support them monetarily like the Taliban could. Both sides, the independent militias on the government side and the ones that openly support the Taliban, seem to think the Americans are the infidels instead.

 “Return of the Taliban” – PBS Frontline

           

After the Taliban and Al Qaida were driven out of Afghanistan in 2001, they regrouped in Peshawar, on the border of the tribal territories in Pakistan. These areas now have full Taliban influence, since the tribal areas operate autonomously from the Pakistani state. Here, the Taliban have regrouped and reformed, and Pakistan is doing almost nothing to stop them. Nor does it appear to want to. Musharraf attempts to play both sides by supporting the US, while allowing the ISI almost complete power to support the Taliban so as not to alienate his political support. This kind of toeing the line is only possible for a very short while. In the tribal regions the support for the Taliban and Al Qaida is completely open. Mosques even held collections to support the groups when the US first went into Afghanistan and collected gold, silver, cash, and weapons.

Pakistan did not cooperate with US completely at first or for awhile after the start of the war – to could have possibly been the final thing that undermined the US’s whole Afghanistan mission and could explain why the US is still fighting in Afghanistan ten years later. Pakistan has basically cut their own deals with Al Qaida and the Taliban under the US’s nose. The introduction of suicide bombing and Arab money into the Taliban and Al Qaida can largely be blamed on Pakistan effectively supporting them throughout the whole game. When it comes down to it, it appears Pashtun brotherhood is stronger than any political system. But that doesn’t mean they want the general Pakistani or American public to know about their double dealing. Hayat Ullah was one of many journalists killed because he implicated the Pakistani government as supporting the Americans in drone bombings of Taliban leaders. He published images of found US missiles at the site of an explosion that killed a Taliban bomb maker. It disproved what the Pakistani government had originally stated- that it was an accidental explosion. It could have undermined Musharraf and the ISI’s dealings with the Taliban. Since then, Karzai has attempted to politically force Musharraf into full support of the US, but has been relatively unsuccessful until very recently. Even Bush attempted to force Musharraf, but Bush’s political skills were too lacking to win him over. Despite all of this Musharraf is still only reasonable ally in the region, and so the US is stuck with him for awhile.

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[i] Rashid 144

[ii] Rashid 151

[iii] Rashid 157

[iv] Rashid 168

[v] Rashid 173

[vi] Rashid 185

[vii] Rashid 195

Reaction Paper #4

Readings – Descent into Chaos Chapters 4-6

                It was clear from watching “Bush’s War” how unprepared the US was to face an Al Qaida attack and then retaliate against Afghanistan.  The retaliation was as much an attempt by the CIA to regain some standing as it was an actual act of national defense. The neoconservative leadership referenced by Rashid made the biggest mistake in leaving the intelligence gathering to the ISI who could not be trusted, since they had been double dealing with the Taliban the whole time.[i] This really wasn’t surprising to most people I don’t think, but apparently it was surprising to the administration. It was one of the first of many mistakes they would make in the region. Choosing a side in the Pakistan –India problem was not a good idea. Again, the US made the best decision for the moment without any consideration of the long term effects of supporting an enemy of India, the country with the most economic potential for the United States.

                The Americans quickly supported Karzai because he was the only Pashtun fighting the Taliban. He also had some experience leading the country as part of the northern resistance in the 90s.[ii] What is not commonly known is that Pakistan facilitated the escape of most of the Taliban leaders during the initial attack. The killing became more pronounced as the light footprint originally desired turned into troop surges later. When the US gained control over Kabul they installed Karzai as the head of the fledgling and relatively powerless government.  As we’ve discussed in class, Karzai is basically only mayor of Kabul for all the influence he has around the rest of the country. Rashid discusses the multitude of mistakes made by the military that are too numerous to list here.

                Kashmir is a central issue in the region, though administration after administration seems to ignore it. Both Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons, one in response to the other. However, India is the more stable country. Choosing one side will automatically alienate the other. Both supporting and having the support of Pakistan is important: as an Islamic state, it has more influence over other Islamic nations. It is also shares a border with Afghanistan, and the ISI (when behaving) can be useful to augment US forces.[iii] On the other hand, Pakistan itself is rather unstable. It is a military dictatorship in the hands of a less than capable leader. They have nuclear weapons, and as an unstable nation this makes Pakistan even more dangerous not only to other countries but also to itself. Musharraf could just as easily bomb his own people as he could another country. Strong US influence is stabilizing to Pakistan. India is already a pretty stable country though it does have its fair share of religious unrest. Their government is more responsible however, and can be slightly more trusted with nuclear weapons. Furthermore, and alliance with India in Afghanistan surrounds Pakistan on both sides making it even more unstable than it already is. However, India is an important client of the US economically. Alienating India is minimizing a market that could be heavily invested in for the betterment of our economy and also probably the world economy. The choice between Pakistan and India will be always be an interesting balancing act for the US, and it is a surprisingly influential one.[iv]

Viewings – “Top Secret America” – Frontline/PBS

                After 9/11, Congress gave the CIA and the Department of Defense a blank check, not only to go after Al Qaida, but also to ensure that it never happened again. It’s commonly known that Cofer Black started the assault on Al Qaida with the CIA followed closely by the DOD. Black was famous for the statement that the “gloves come off”, which had interesting implications for the US and the future of war. A lot of the story in Top Secret America is the same as Bush’s War, so I will stick to the new information in this blog.

Effect of 9/11 on the bureaucracy

9/11 damaged morality of the government because they had utterly failed at the only job they had to do. While the official blame was put on the CIA for publicity reasons, the actual fault lies more with the inability for the individual agencies to communicate with each other and within their own ranks, like in “The Man Who Knew”. They had to win now at any cost to save their own reputations just as much as they needed to get revenge for all the deaths. We already know how they proceeded from there with regard to Afghanistan and later Iraq, but the question that is finally addressed this time is what rules do they operate by? No one was able to answer that question, or even ask it at the time for that matter. It wasn’t clear to most of the American public until much later that the US was violating multiple international treaties the most important of which was the Geneva Conventions.  As the only real superpower in the world, it seemed as though the administration thought it was their right to obey or ignore these treaties at will. There is no real way to enforce the Geneva Conventions on the US. It would take an enemy torturing American POWs for anyone to notice the problem.

Secret Prisons

                The high volume of maximum security prisoners the US was taking in had to be kept somewhere not on American soil, for legal reasons and also security reasons, so the CIA set up a network of black sites. They were max security prisons in other countries, many in eastern Europe, where the CIA could do whatever they wanted to prisoners with no one else paying attention. It’s hard to tell how these prisoners should have been treated. The Geneva conventions are very important, but Al Qaida is not a national army and could not be counted on to uphold the conventions or any other international law for that matter. On the other hand, it is the responsibility of the US military to act under the rules it has already established in the handling of these operations. When the gloves came off, in some cases our national morality and identity came with it. Americans think so highly of themselves as revolutionaries fighting for justice against an oppressive English monarchy even still today, but with that comes the responsibility to maintain the morality associated with such a cause which was set forth in the declaration of independence, constitution, and bill of rights. If America loses this sense of moral righteousness and descends to the level of the enemy, we lose everything.

NSA/Patriot Act

The CIA and DOD were not the only agencies that wanted more power. The NSA lobbied for an unprecedented amount of power to police within US borders. It was of course given to them immediately. This action was a catalyst for the Patriot Act, which allowed phone tapping American citizens without a warrant. The volume of people and facilities for such a project was staggering. The money literally poured out of congress for massive new facilities around the country and for hiring private contractors like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Booz Allen Hamilton. The practical result of this massive expansion was a huge national security grid “hidden in plain sight”. Countless facilities around the country started appearing as unassuming buildings which could descend several stories underground where wiretapping might be taking place, or an entire government cyber security team might be working. This practically created an entirely new industry since the necessary manpower for these operations was huge. Today, over 2 million people in the United States have government security clearance.

National Intelligence Director

                After Iraq it became clear that the ballooning security system of the United States still wasn’t functioning the way it should, since they predicted the WMDs that never existed. Though it had been clear to many for a long time, the government finally decided to tackle the problem of communication between government agencies. The new position of National Intelligence Director was created by congress to respond to the WMD failure in Iraq and also to show that congress was doing something to respond to it. It turns out the Position came with tiny office space and almost no power in the government, making it effectively useless.

Obama

By the 2008 election, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were some of the biggest issues in discussion. In Obama’s platform, he campaigned for rolling back the government security explosion and saving money, but when he got to office he kept and even elevated Bush’s military action in Afghanistan, though he immediately began a plan for pulling out of Iraq. Once Obama had full opportunity to understand everything about the war that most Americans aren’t allowed to see, he increased the US footprint in Afghanistan. That says something about the war, because someone who was fully against a troop surge in the campaign saw documents or confidential documents that gave him a good reason to do so anyway. It also means that as regular citizens we do criticize without knowing probably most of what’s going on in the region.

The average citizen’s role

Despite the elevated security and intelligence since 9/11 a few terrorist attempts have slipped through the cracks, most notably the Christmas Day plane bomber in 2009, and the Times Square Car Bombing attempt. They weren’t caught by government security, but they were prevented by average citizens. What does this mean for the role of the security bureaucracy? All it may take is more diligent citizens to prevent terrorist actions instead of a huge government system that sucks up money. The problem is, if Obama were to cut the security budget and then something did happen the outcome would be even worse.

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[i] Rashid, 78

[ii] Rashid, 86

[iii] Rashid, 115

[iv] Rashid, 123

Reaction Paper #3

Readings  - Descent into Chaos – Ahmed Rashid, Up to Chapter 3

                Descent into Chaos begins by telling the story of Hamid Karzai. He was an easygoing seeker of compromise, which meant he never fit it (nor desired to fit in) with the fundamentalist groups in Afghanistan at the time. Instead he joined the National Liberation Front led by Mujaddedi and became his foreign policy advisor. When Mujaddedi became president of the new Islamic Republic of Afghanistan after the soviet withdraw, Karzai became his deputy foreign minister. When America pulled out under George H.W. Bush the political vacuum resulted in civil war – not unlike what would happen in Iraq ten or so years later. Out of the civil war, the Taliban emerged. Karzai points out that they were initially good people, but the tragedy of the Taliban was that they were taken over by the ISI and were merely a proxy. Whether or not this is true is fundamentally another issue, but it is interesting that Karzai admits to supporting them in the beginning.[i]

                The Taliban were young and easily influenced, making them an easy target for first the ISI and then Al Qaida. It was only after Bin Laden had a real ideological and monetary influence that the Taliban began to think of global jihad. The Americans refused to put any real effort into the region, and even when Al Qaida bombed US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the US response was small and ineffective.[ii] Rashid argues that he and Karzai both tried to warn western governments, especially the united states, but they didn’t respond. It is always easier to see these things in hindsight though and they couldn’t possibly know what was coming, so it is difficult to tell if this is a valid point or not. Eventually the world began to take notice, but it was too late. They were already powerful enough to be ignoring UN resolutions. At this point Karzai chose to join Masud and the Northern Alliance. Masud was murdered two days before 9/11.

                Pakistani cooperation seemed necessary in order to get Bin Laden, and on 9/11, the US gave Pakistan an ultimatum: Either they were with the US or they would be taken down along with the terrorists.[iii] Needless to say, they agreed. Most of Pakistan’s reasoning lied in its refusal to allow a US/India alliance. In some sense, Pakistan’s problem was originally caused by the US who began covertly funding the Pakistani military to the tune of $500 million per year as part of their cold war agenda in 1957. The military has maintained control over the government since with the exception of the reigns of Ali Bhutto and his daughter Benazir.[iv] Either way, it was impossible to trust Musharraf.

                Musharraf, who nearly plunged the world into nuclear war, was now the chief executive of the Pakistani military and therefore the government. He was viewed internationally as unstable and easily influenced. He was educated in the western tradition, and seemed to be fairly secular by all accounts, only joining the military for its glamour. He even trained at Fort Bragg in the US. Sharif made him military chief because he assumed Musharraf would never gain too much power. Instead he overthrew him. Now Musharraf was attempting to completely support the US on paper, while in reality not ever ending support for Al Qaida or the Taliban. This was a mistake that would never be forgiven by many Afghan people. His popularity didn’t last long. He fell down the same hole as all other disliked military dictators. He kept restricting freedom and becoming more corrupt until the UN was forced to get involved. By 9/11 he was ignoring UN sanctions and continuing to champion the Taliban.

Viewings  -  Bush’s War[v]

                The Frontline Documentary “Bush’s War” paints an interesting and very informative picture of the events immediately after 9/11 throughout Bush’s presidency. Though 9/11 was a product of Al Qaida and everyone in the government seemed to know it was Al Qaida, A plan for an invasion of Iraq had already been sketched out. 9/11 was the perfect opportunity to put the plan into motion. Nevertheless, President Bush decided that Afghanistan would be his first priority. At the time, there were two major coalitions in Washington, vying for the President’s notice and favor. On one side was Vice President Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, and Donald Rumsfeld, the secretary of defense. On the other side were Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice. These two schools of foreign policy would battle each other for the remainder of Bush’s presidency.

                The first time was over who would be in charge in Afghanistan. Originally power was given to the CIA who already had attack plans in the Middle East under leadership of Cofer Black, but Rumsfeld pushed hard enough to convert a large portion of the power to Department of Defense. Since the DOD had plans in Iraq, Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy secretary of defense, managed to convince the President that Iraq was a threat. It seems that he needed any excuse possible to bring Iraq into a potential war. To capture and hold to terrorists, and to use the interrogation techniques they wanted, they needed to go around the law. They were able to thanks to their Yes-Man in the justice dept, John Yoo. He drafted memos that effectively gave the president wartime power to an unprecedented and probably illegal extent. It’s key to mention that congress actually refused to grant Bush these permissions, but he just bypassed congress with the justice department and took the power anyway. The Taliban was easy to dismantle, and Bush used his newfound power, to torture high profile terrorists captured in Afghanistan to obtain actionable intelligence. Some of this information would later be proved false, which is not too surprising considering the information was given under extreme pressure.

                The real question, however, was what to do with the scores of other prisoners in Afghanistan. This problem was solved by Cheney when he convinced Bush to sign a document stating that the prisoners could be tried by military tribunals, without the knowledge of and foreign policy advisors. At this point, President Bush’s approval rating was near 90%. Once the topic of Iraq came up, the two factions in Bush’s cabinet began warring again.  Added to Colin Powell’s side this time was Tony Blair. At this point, Rumsfeld began pushing people around, and under his and Cheney’s influence he determined to go into Iraq, first under the premise of toppling a rogue regime, but later weapons of mass destruction would be cited as the main reason for going into Iraq. Colin Powell and Tony Blair managed to convince Bush that he was obligated to go to the UN first to obtain a resolution to search for WMDs in Iraq. But here, Blair signed his own political death order by agreeing to support Bush if afterwards the US did determine to mount a military operation in Iraq. What Blair didn’t know is that Wolfowitz and Chalabi, an Iraqi exile and part of the Iraqi National Congress, were campaigning behind closed doors to invade regardless of what the UN concluded. Their Agenda involved toppling Saddam Hussein’s regime and installing a government that would be controlled by the Iraqi National Congress. Even still, the CIA could find no evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved in Al Qaida, so invasion could not be justified under the existing US foreign policy. This is where Cheney brought up the point of WMDs. It’s really astounding how much influence Cheney had on Bush, considering the fact that vice presidents have historically been comparatively powerless. It makes Bush look almost child-like, with the grownups (Rumsfeld, Cheney, Powell, Rice) making the key moves on either side. Neither Rumsfeld or Cheney trusted the State department or the CIA , so Rumsfeld establish his own intelligence agency called the Office of Special Planning, with the single goal of finding (or even fabricating) evidence of a connection between Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden.

                With the large influx of prisoners in custody, it posed the problem of where to put them all. Rumsfeld, on his own, decided that they would go to Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. He had convinced Bush that the Geneva conventions concerning the treatment of POWs did not apply in this case. Powell very strongly disagreed , but was completely undercut by the rest of the administration. At Guantanamo, the conditions were terrible and no actionable intelligence was coming out of the interrogations. As a result, Rumsfeld authorized the harshest interrogation techniques ever allowed in the United States Military. The bottom line leading up to the Iraq war was that Administration was fitting the facts to its policy instead of the other way around, despite the fact that most of America’s allies did not agree.  Especially when the UN did not find any evidence of WMDs.

                 In March of 2003, combat operations in Iraq began. Their Shock and Awe tactics lasted only 3 weeks, and Saddam Hussein disappeared as his statue fell in Baghdad. But in its place, there wasn’t freedom, only anarchy. The original plan was to hand Iraq over to the Iraqi National Congress Immediately and pull out troops.  This plan failed. Eventually L.Paul Bremer III was given control of the aftermath of Iraq. He immediately dismantled the remnants of the Iraqi government and disbanded the Iraqi army, both of which were rather obvious mistakes. All the senior military officials in Iraq quit in protest.  By this time all the control of Iraq was held by ridiculously inexperienced people. Now they were stuck in Iraq for the long haul, despite Rumsfeld claiming otherwise. From the anarcy of a collapsed Iraq rose an insurgency, on both the Sunni and Shi’ite sides, some partially funded by Iran. The US desperately needed intelligence in order to combat the insurgents, and thus Abu Ghraib  happened. The US military began arresting everyone in order to get actionable intelligence, Rumsfeld decidied they needed to be tougher as they had in Guantanamo, and with approval by Sanchez, Abu Ghraib became a torture prison.

                Not too long before re-election, Saddam Hussein was found near the Sunni stronghold of Falluja. The Battle of Falluja was a US failure and only served to strengthen the Insurgency. After bush won re-election, he replaces Colin Powell with Condoleezza Rice. Cheney had refused to let Bush fire Rumsfeld instead. The government still managed to hold elections by this point and millions had turned out to vote, but the Sunnis boycotted. When the Photos from Abu Ghraib leaded and Senator McCain  questioned Rumsfeld in congress, Bush lost a lot of respect for Rumsfeld, and Rice began to be the more powerful advisor to the President. Her Finish the Job Rhetoric and Clear, Hold, Build strategy would soon become the official strategy of the military.  At this point, the battle with the Shi’Ites was mostly over, but the Sunnis posed a major security threat even before Al Qaida attacked the most famous Shi’ite mosque and effectively started a civil war in Iraq that undermined the remaining plans of the US military.  Now the US was forced to “Stay the Course” or else all their Middle East plans would be completely derailed. This happened right before the 2006 midterm elections, where the democrats would reclaim majority in the House of Representatives. At this point, Rumsfeld became too big a risk and he was asked to resign. He was replaced with Rice’s nomination, Robert Gates.  Bush was powerless to stop the fighting in Iraq and military presence would continue until Obama’s presidency.

                This documentary really characterized bush as an ineffective an incompetent leader that just did whatever his advisors said, and listened to whoever he liked best at the moment. It is difficult to pinpoint what could have been changed to prevent the Iraq war, which historically can probably be considered a failure. The major issue I believe was Dick Cheney’s role as Vice President. He had an unprecedented and extraordinary influence on the President along with a very strong friendship with Donald Rumsfeld. Together they could bully anyone in Washington to get what they wanted. Had Cheney not been Bush’s vice president, diplomacy would have taken a stronger role instead of the Department of Defense, which could have prevented war, and therefore the ridiculous spending of taxpayers dollars.

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[i] Rashid, 13

[ii] Rashid, 16

[iii] Rashid, 28

[iv] Rashid, 37

[v] http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/bushswar/